Chance in Sport: How Luck and Probability Influence Outcomes

Abstract

Sport, beyond technique, tactics, and strategy, includes chance as an unavoidable element (a rebound, a refereeing error) that can alter up to 30% of the variance in results. This duality between skill and chance is the main source of sporting emotion and narrative. Sports science uses statistics and probability (such as xG models) to quantify and reduce uncertainty, transforming unpredictability into information that optimizes performance. Psychologically, athletes use rituals or superstitions to mitigate the feeling of lack of control, which improves concentration. For the fan, uncertainty is the core of the emotion that generates drama.