Possession Metrics and Match Results: How They Relate in Sports Predictions

Abstract

Ball possession, while popular, is no longer considered a definitive predictor of success. Modern analysis demonstrates that dominating the ball does not guarantee offensive effectiveness; in fact, direct styles are often more lethal with less control. Current predictions, used by leading experts, integrate possession as a contextual variable alongside critical metrics: shots on target, effectiveness in transitions, and pressure in the opponent's half. Possession can even be defensive, used to manage the tempo rather than to attack. Therefore, advanced models distinguish between sterile and active control, understanding that isolated data is worthless without the tactical interpretation of the game.